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Don't Overthink It. Same Old (New) Story

Oil prices are up. Bond yields are down sharply. If this was early September, that wouldn't make sense. Bonds decoupled from the oil correlation on Fed week and then REALLY decoupled as stronger econ data was priced in, starting with that very weird S&P PMI reaction on Sept 23. Ever since then, yields have been fumbling around in the dark, trying to find a long-term ceiling. Then Coreweave concerns came to the forefront, slowly at first (October 8) and then swiftly last week. Once again today, Coreweave bond drama is directly linked to this morning's sharpest movement toward lower yields. 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Oct 2026 | 1:18 pm

Ultimately Flat After Options-Driven Volatility

Ultimately Flat After Options-Driven Volatility Treasuries continued in the same sideways holding pattern seen over the past 4 trading sessions. This generally mirrors a holding pattern in certain tech companies' credit risk metrics. In short, bonds currently have nothing better to do than wait and see if tech is experiencing some kind of true inflection point or just a false alarm. Today was set to be especially boring as a result, but there was some afternoon volatility surrounding the options expiration cut-off (which affected both Treasuries and stocks). Even then, the net effect of that volatility was less than 1.5bps of weakness in 10yr yields (5.124 after the dust settled versus 5.112 before the spike). 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Oct 2026 | 8:51 pm

Mortgage Rates End Flat After Starting Slightly Lower

It was another ho-hum day for mortgage rates, which is more of the exception than the rule these days. But we're not complaining! The uneventful, sideways movement means rates are holding in line with the lowest levels in nearly a month. Today would have been slightly lower than yesterday had it not been for some mid-day weakness in the underlying bond market. While there were a few war-related headlines that coincided with the timing, the volatility is more attributable to esoteric trader positioning considerations in the Treasury options market. 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Oct 2026 | 7:58 pm

Fulfillment, Home Price Performance, Borrower Assistance Tools; Webinars; Non-Agency Products

Let’s see what’s in my electronic mailbag. “Rob, is it true that LOs can now join the MBA directly?” Yup. There’s MBA Homebase that provides loan officers with education, coaching, professional development, and a stronger voice in the mortgage industry. It is open to loan officers at every lender and across every origination channel, regardless of whether their company is an MBA member. “Rob, I watched President Trump talk about Montana being helped, financially, by Fannie and Freddie. Is that legal?” Hah, define “legal.” Montana has about 10,000 sales a year, $3 billion divided by 10,000 is $300,000. He is just saying that Fannie and Freddie are going to keep doing what they always have done: facilitate home loans? Or will Bill Pulte have state-based loan level price adjustments, which some may view as politically based? Stay tuned. “Rob, since Clinton and Congress last balanced the budget, we’ve had a deficit. Why do we care now?” First off, it’s a huge, unimaginable number, and no politician even wants to talk about it. Let’s face it: we’re spending money that we don’t have. The U.S. government, with its $40 trillion in debt, isn't the only one with a debt problem. 1 in 5 Americans fell behind on a loan or mortgage payment in 2025, according to new data from the Federal Reserve. That figure is up from 1 in 8 Americans in 2022 and marks the highest level since 2007. Why is it happening, and what will it mean for the economy? (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by Experian. Experian Verify’s integration with Workday gives mortgage lenders broader access to reliable, up-to-date income and employment data, streamlining verification, enhancing efficiency, and delivering a smoother borrower experience from application to closing. Today’s has an interview with Knock’s Sean Black on the company’s buy-before-you-sell program, which allows homeowners to access their existing home equity to purchase a new home before selling their current one.)

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Oct 2026 | 3:51 pm

Waiting For Whatever's Next

We find ourselves in a bit of a lull in the bond market this week, and we don't object! Yields aren't screaming back up toward recent highs. Nor are they extending last week's swift rally. Both would cause problems for different reasons. Consolidating last week's rally in this narrow, sideways pattern is arguably the very best thing that could have happened this week. Whatever happens next is likely to be driven by a combination of the evolving narrative on tech sector concerns, econ data, and the Fed policy stance (which is really just a function of the econ data). In general, it is the tech sector narrative that has kept us in this week's lull. There too, investors are waiting for whatever's next. 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Oct 2026 | 2:21 pm

Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game

Tech Concerns Keeping Bonds in The Game There was some oil price volatility today that looked like it might line up with some of the intraday volatility in the bond market. This may have actually been relevant between 10:10 and 10:30am as various rumors circulated regarding a draft deal. But the general trading range of Treasuries/MBS has been facilitated by the ongoing focus on potential credit concerns for a few key tech names. Coreweave is front and center with today's corporate bond volatility lining up very well with the AM Treasury volatility. Specifically, the height of Coreweave's yield spike lined up perfectly with the best level in Treasuries. Bonds ultimately ended the day slightly stronger--keeping them comfortably in the lower range seen since last Thursday. Econ Data / Events Building permits 1.400m vs 1.390m Housing Starts 1.221m vs 1.300m  Market Movement Recap 02:50 PM Early gains and a subsequent bounce lined up with Coreweave's stock price bottoming out and and recovering. Oil prices were possibly a consideration, but we're cautious about expecting much correlation there based on the very disconnected trading of the past month.

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 20 Oct 2026 | 8:37 pm

Mortgage Rates Move Slightly Lower

Mortgage rates dropped 0.03% today on average leaving the top-tier 30yr fixed rate index at 7.40% vs 7.43% yesterday--the third lowest level in more than 3 weeks. As has been and continues to be the case, the lower rates seen since last Wednesday are primarily being driven by concerns about deleveraging and potential contagion in the AI sector. One of the most closely-watched bellwethers has been Coreweave where a sharp decline in stock prices and sharp increase in corporate bond yields has broadly mirrored recent moves in interest rates. Some of today's intraday volatility can also be viewed in the context of oil prices and war-related headlines, but we'd caution against placing too much emphasis on the oil price correlation. It's been highly unreliable for more than a month. 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 20 Oct 2026 | 6:45 pm

AI Ass't, Home Equity, Servicing, Borrower Capture, Audit Tools; MISMO & DPA

“I ordered a book online titled, ‘How to Scam People Online.’ It’s been six months and I still haven’t received it.” Being scammed, and fraud in general, isn’t a laughing matter. Companies like SoFi publish information on how to recover afterward. People over 60, as always, are more susceptible. The FBI has a website on mortgage fraud which is well-regarded. Good loan officers are instrumental in teaching their clients about it. I mention all of this because I continue to hear from LOs about how artificial intelligence has increased fraud more than reduced it. Generating one’s own paystubs online takes about 20 seconds, and has for many years, hence the increase in reputable verification services. Third party providers have increased their range and scope: Firstline Compliance, FraudGuard, FundingShield, ACES Quality Management, and Secure Insight all jump to mind. There are even companies like Private Eyes to check the background of those checking the loan. Remember: you have the money, they want it. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by Experian. Experian Verify’s integration with Workday gives mortgage lenders broader access to reliable, up-to-date income and employment data, streamlining verification, enhancing efficiency, and delivering a smoother borrower experience from application to closing. Today’s has an interview with NFTYDoor’s Tim Rowan on home equity lending and how digital technology and human support can improve borrower and loan-originator experiences.)

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 20 Oct 2026 | 3:48 pm

Slightly Stronger Start

The bond market continues to decide who it wants to be in Q4, 2026--the harbinger of inflation concerns, debt issuance and economic growth or a safe haven for cash being freed up by AI capex deleveraging. We're starting slightly stronger today with the AI deleveraging trade apparently setting the tone. Movement is too modest to demand any rigorous analysis (Nasdaq lower, yields lower), but at least it's green.

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 20 Oct 2026 | 1:39 pm