What's New in Real Estate!
Lowest Mortgage Rates in Nearly 3 Weeks
The news on mortgage rates has been frustratingly mixed recently, depending on the source. This is a factor of the various time frames and methodologies employed by different purveyors of rate data. If you're reading this, however, none of that matters because the following is as timely as it gets: the average mortgage lender is now at the lowest level since April 7th. Improvements versus yesterday vary depending on the lender. Some of them made friendly adjustments yesterday afternoon in response to stronger trading in the bond market. Others waited to make those adjustments until this morning. In the bigger picture, rates are still slightly elevated compared to their recent stint calmly holding the lowest levels since December. But they're not looking nearly as panicked as they did in the week following the big tariff announcements earlier this month. The coming week brings an active slate of economic data and events with the power to whip up some additional volatility. As always, we can only know about the potential for volatility. The actual direction and magnitude of rate movement will depend on the outcome of the economic reports as well as any other relevant headlines that emerge throughout the week.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Apr 2025 | 8:06 pm
Existing Home Sales at 5 Month Lows
As is the case for the monthly data on New Home Sales from the Census Bureau, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Existing Home Sales report does not make for exciting news these days. It's not that the news is tragic or alarming either. It just sort of... is. Whereas New Home Sales have been able to hold sideways near their pre-covid highs, Existing Sales continue to languish near the lowest levels in decades. Apart from the great financial crisis in 2008-2010, you'd have to go back to 1995 to see lower levels. "Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates," said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. "Residential housing mobility, currently at historical lows, signals the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society."Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Apr 2025 | 7:54 pm
New Home Sales Running Near Highest Pace Since 2022
The Census Bureau released March New Home Sales data this week, and it was near the best levels seen since early 2022. Before you get too excited about that, a caveat is in order. Simply put, when it comes to housing market data, nothing has been more uneventful than new home sales over the past few years. The chart tells the story. It's tough to make an entire news article interesting when it comes to this data, so we won't waste your time. Instead, here are some bullet-pointed highlights that showcase some of the departures from the status quo (these are common, and they tend to come out in the wash in the longer term): Sales fell 22.2% in the Northeast region, but had risen just as sharply in the previous month. Sales jumped nicely in the South for the 2nd straight month (13.6% this time) and are now at their highest levels since April 2021. The South accounts for 483k of the 724k national total.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Apr 2025 | 7:19 pm
Mortgage Applications Dropped Sharply in Response to The Recent Rate Spike
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Apr 2025 | 7:01 pm
Maryland Changes Licensing; Upcoming Conferences; Perspective on the CFPB; Title and Flood Products
What if your client called the CFPB about a servicing issue, or any issue, and no one answered? Things are changing, but for a thorough write up on the current situation, check out Debra Gaveglio & Donna Schmidt’s “Harmonizing Regulatory Compliance and Industry Perspectives: Leveraging Consumer Protection and Mortgage Servicing Loss Mitigation.” At its peak, the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau had about 1,700 staff. Talk in recent months of a reduction in force of 1,500 takes the number down to about 200, with authorities saying the focus of those 200 will be on “actual harm done to consumers.” It was originally envisioned that the CFPB would see harm, create a solution, and then plan it out using industry consensus. Depending on who has been in charge of the CFPB, this may or may not have happened. In fact, the CFPB has followed politics in swinging from one extreme to another, not really helping borrowers or reducing lender’s compliance costs. It is rumored, with anecdotal tales, that many CFPB employees have already gone to work at the state level, which is interesting in that the states regularly come to the CFPB for interpretations of regulations. What if Texas or California or Florida have a question about the Ability to Repay verbiage, call the CFPB, and there is no one there to pick up the phone? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite's core products unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with Friday Harbor’s Theo Ellis and Jesse Collins on raising funds for mortgage technology in the current climate.)Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Apr 2025 | 3:52 pm
Data Free Friday. Heavy Data Next Week
Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the final reading of the preliminary release 2 weeks ago. It's the preliminary release that tends to move markets. Case in point, there was no reaction to this morning's installment, nor would we have expected there to be. Next week is a different story. Multiple calendar events are capable of having an impact. Most strikingly, at least one of these events is tap on every single day (usually there's at least one day that offers a break in the storm). All of the above makes today somewhat superfluous and inconsequential in the bigger picture. Sure, there could be some major, unexpected fiscal development, but it seems financial markets are increasingly comfortable in their assumption that the Trump administration received the message about a more measured approach on tariffs. That comfort is reflected in bonds' return to the pre-tariff range. Today's chart shows why we don't care about Consumer Sentiment today. You won't see another chart like this because the custom is to plot only one value per month. This chart plots a value for each release of the data. It shows the very small change from preliminary to final readings and the much larger changes in between.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 25 Apr 2025 | 2:34 pm
Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons
Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons Bonds improved moderately well overnight and added to those gains steadily during the domestic session. Ask 10 traders why and you might not get 10 different answers, but it would be at least 5. Improvement in the tariff outlook is a common refrain, but forex markets suggest that's not a huge motivation. Still, one could argue that a more sober approach is restoring some confidence for bond traders. One could also argue that traders are positioning for economic fallout with next week being the big week for econ data. Then there's the notion that moving through the Treasury auction cycle was helpful, but it's not as if traders didn't know that ahead of time. Last but not least, a comment from Fed's Hammack (saying the Fed could move in June) did align with some of this morning's improvement, but not in a way that accounts for an entire day's worth of gains. Perhaps we'll have to dust off the "no news is good news" thesis and simply conclude it makes sense for bonds to be consolidating in the pre-tariff range until we get a clearer sense of policy and the economy's response to it. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 222k vs 222k f'cast, 216k prev Continued Claims 1841k vs 1880k f'cast, 1878k prev Durable Goods 9.2 vs 2.0 f'cast, 0.9 prev Core Durable Goods 0.1 vs 0.2 f'cast, -0.3 prev Market Movement Recap 08:58 AM Stronger overnight with additional gains after uneventful data. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 6+bps at 4.32 01:09 PM No major reaction to ho-hum 7yr auction. 10yr yields down 7.7bps at 4.312 and MBS up 3/8ths of a point. 03:33 PM Best levels of the day. MBS up nearly half a point and 10yr down 8bps at 4.31Source: Mortgage News Daily | 24 Apr 2025 | 8:26 pm
Mortgage Rates Continue Lower
Mortgage rates continue the slow, bumpy process of healing from the rapid rise seen 2 weeks ago. Last week was a solid victory in that sense with rates moving steadily and meaningfully lower without any major rebounds. The present week started out on shakier footing as rates lurched higher on Monday. Fortunately, the sailing has been smoother since then. Today was actually the best day of the week so far for the underlying bond market. Most of the improvement happened in overseas trading overnight, but gains continued in the U.S. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate fell 0.04% from yesterday. Based on the timing of the bond market gains, if nothing were to change overnight, the average lender would be able to move slightly lower again tomorrow. NOTE: the preceding is not a prediction. It's merely a comment on the fact that the bond market improved a bit more than the average mortgage rate would suggest. There's never a guarantee that bonds will do any particular thing between now and the next time mortgage lenders are setting rates for the day.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 24 Apr 2025 | 7:47 pm
Bigger Picture Starting to Look More Normal
What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look. Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways movement in a relatively narrow range as we waited for clarity on new fiscal policies and economic data. The tariff roll-out shook things up, to be sure, but for more than a week now, yields have been back in the same old "normal" pattern. So what's next? That's a good question. It could be a big policy shift, or economic data, or a global market event. No one knows, but we'll know it when we see it. As a counterpoint to the chart above, consider that shorter term bonds have been trending in the opposite direction and at a faster pace. How to reconcile the outperformance of 2yr yields vs 10yr yields: (remember that 2s have a lot in common with intermediate Fed rate expectations)Source: Mortgage News Daily | 24 Apr 2025 | 4:19 pm
