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Mortgage Rates Lowest Since May 14th

Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There's still some risk that the deal doesn't happen as is currently expected. If those risks materialize, rates could nudge back up toward recent highs. But if everything goes according to plan (or close to it), the bond market may continue pricing in the expected impact on oil prices. The only warning is that some analysts think oil prices have already gotten ahead of themselves in that regard. If those analysts are right, it could limit any additional momentum toward lower rates until peace is on more solid footing. Tomorrow brings the next Fed rate announcement. Markets foresee zero chance of a hike or a cut, but will nonetheless be paying attention to new Fed Chair Warsh's first press conference. 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 16 Jun 2026 | 7:56 pm

Stronger Overnight as Europe Trades Peace

European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets.  Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious, it wasn't too big. 10yr yields are hovering in a range that's 2-3bps lower than yesterday, and still above the lows seen at the beginning of the month. 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 16 Jun 2026 | 3:55 pm

AI Products; Fair Lending, Deportations, and Service Animals; AI Governance; Pennymac's AI Path

Sure, we have a Fed meeting, but the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. Will they all head off on vacation after this week? Perhaps. Given the increase in the “out of office” replies I am seeing, and children in airports, summer vacation is in full swing. (Apparently families will change their spending habits to accommodate the run up in fuel costs; my local gas station won’t let me go above $100 per visit on my credit card.) In an extreme example to time management, the U.S. Congress has only 16 legislative days left on its agenda until the election; the rest of the time is vacation and campaigning to keep their jobs. In other words, don’t look for much from Congress until January. Certainly, no politician wants to cut spending despite the deficit continuing to escalate. What would you tell your kids if their incomes weren’t doing much but they were ramping up their spending? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Interview with TrustEngine’s Dave Savage on why the mortgage professionals who will thrive are those who obsess over delivering a modern, technology-enabled consumer experience, embrace AI to scale advice and efficiency, and focus on educating and advocating.) Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 16 Jun 2026 | 2:55 pm

Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.

Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop.  Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are close enough to the best recent levels to say the overall market reaction has been fairly even keeled. We'd also expect more bullishness among bond traders when the deal is officially official (possibly after Friday's scheduled meeting in Switzerland). Finally, bonds could be holding back a bit to see how Wednesday's Fed announcement goes.  Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing (Jun) 5.70 vs 14 f'cast, 19.60 prev Industrial Production (May) 0.1% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.7% prev Market Movement Recap 08:49 AM Nice rally overnight on confirmation of U.S./Iran peace deal with scheduled signing. MBS up nearly a quarter point and 10yr down 3.3 bps at 4.452 12:35 PM MBS still up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.461 03:21 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.463

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 15 Jun 2026 | 8:15 pm

Mortgage Rates Hit One-Month Lows

The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month.  For context, today's MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you'd have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today's rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.  In other words, we are in solid shape in the context of the last month, but still in an elevated range.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 15 Jun 2026 | 7:51 pm

Verification, MGIC Survey, Rocket Contest, Credit Reporting Tools; Agency Program Changes

This morning, I head to Honolulu for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference. The “Pineapple State” is known for banks and credit unions dominating residential lending. Robber Willie Sutton is famously quoted as saying, "I rob banks because that's where the money is." Large, unexpected moves in money make the headlines, and Saturday’s Commentary highlighted the collapse of a condominium property management company. Another headline is making the rounds where $17 million in escrow funds disappeared overnight: a Palm Beach law firm sued a bank over a cyber-attack. Ginnie Mae has gained a recent reputation for ratcheting up its cyber security. While companies are focused on security, MLOs have their eye on trends and demographics, and National MI’s Spring 2026 Economic Market Snapshot has its 2026 rate outlook coming in at 6 percent and higher on average, is seeing nearly half of buyers ages 45–59 put less than 20 percent down (leveraging cash or betting on market appreciation?) and first-time buyer activity that rose during February’s rate dip. Yup, don’t bet your career on 30-year mortgage rates in the 5’s. See the full Economic Market Snapshot. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. After a period largely out of the public spotlight, Ally Carty returns to the industry conversation to discuss her transition from Guild Mortgage to SoFi and what she learned from stepping back. She reflects on burnout, the pressures of building a personal brand, and why authenticity - not algorithms - remains the foundation of effective content and leadership.)

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 15 Jun 2026 | 3:26 pm

Near Best Levels in a Month as Peace Deal Materializes

Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a "done deal" from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have corrected gradually since then. Yields remain nearly 4bps lower and MBS are starting out nearly a quarter point higher. 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 15 Jun 2026 | 2:07 pm

Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different

Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd expect a much bigger reaction to an official signing--something that could happen in a matter of days or continue to be punted indefinitely. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Jun) 48.9 vs 46 f'cast, 44.8 prev Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Jun) 4.6% vs -- f'cast, 4.8% prev Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Jun) 3.4% vs -- f'cast, 3.9% prev U Mich conditions (Jun) 48.4 vs 46.2 f'cast, 45.8 prev Market Movement Recap 08:43 AM Just a hair weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.483 10:03 AM Weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19). 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.495 10:48 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.503 01:00 PM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.482

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 12 Jun 2026 | 7:34 pm

Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels in Weeks

Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday's levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That's just 0.02% higher than May 29th levels. You'd have to go back another 2 weeks to May 14th to see anything lower. What's the catch? It's pretty simple. While we may be near the low end of the 4 week range, that range lies at the highs of 10 month range. It's also reasonably narrow, running from 6.58 to 6.75%. This week's resilience is almost entirely due to progress toward peace in the Iran war. If a peace deal becomes official, there's more room for improvement.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 12 Jun 2026 | 6:51 pm