What's New in Real Estate!
Foreclosure Starts Rise Following Moratorium Expiration
Posted To: MND NewsWire
Delinquencies hit a new post-pandemic low in August as the national delinquency rate fell by 84,000 loans or 3.48 percent compared to July. It was 41.84 percent below the level in August of 2020. Black Knight, in its "first look" at the months loan performance data, said the 1.122 million loans that were 30 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, were down by 1.557 million on an annual basis. In January of 2020, one month before the first cases of COVID-19 were reported, the national delinquency rate was 3.3 percent. Serious delinquencies , those loans 90 or more days past due but not in foreclosure, remain elevated, but even they have been improving steadily. Serious delinquencies fell 108,000 from July and are down more than 1 million from the level in August 2020. Still, 1.339 million...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 23 Sep 2021 | 12:52 pm
First-Time Buyer Share Slips as Prices Rise for 114th Month
Posted To: MND NewsWire
Existing home sales ended two months of gains in August, falling 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous month. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said preowned single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and cooperative apartments sold at an annual rate of 5.88 million units during the month compared to 6.00 million in July. Sales were 1.5 percent lower on an annual basis. The dip was expected, and sales came in only slightly under the levels predicted by Econoday and Trading Economics. Their respective consensus estimates were 5.90 and 5.89 million. Single-family home sales decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.19 million in August, down 1.9 percent from 5.29 million in July and 2.8 percent fewer than the rate in August 2020. Condominiums...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 23 Sep 2021 | 12:49 pm
Mortgage Rates Are Actually MUCH Higher This Week
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage rates jumped substantially higher today as global markets reacted to yesterday's Fed announcement. But that's really just scratching the surface. The Fed is a convenient talking point because simply due to timing and the absence of another obvious, singular source of inspiration. It's entirely possible that the confluence of other factors would be producing a similar result regardless of the Fed. In fact, the bond market is talking about 8-9 separate potential market movers today. Most of them are fairly esoteric. The Fed's decision to telegraph a tapering announcement in November is one of the simplest topics, but simpler still is the week-over-week drop in covid case counts in the US. Late September was always going to be important in that regard for several reasons. It's late enough...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 23 Sep 2021 | 12:28 pm
MBS RECAP: What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off?
Posted To: MBS Commentary
What's Up With Today's Big Sell-Off? It's not nearly as surprising to see bond yields breaking technical ceilings today as it was to see them bouncing at a technical floor yesterday. By confirming the taper timeline, the Fed effectively stood aside and allowed nature to take its course in the bond market. The most natural trade of the past 1.5 years has been covid. Viewed in that lens, 2021 is extraordinarily simple. Rates spiked quickly with vaccinations as case counts plummeted. Rates moved lower as concern over the delta variant grew. And now that the new school year is well underway and case counts are falling, it's no surprise to see yields confirming a sideways-to-slightly higher trend by breaking up and over 1.37% (10yr yields). Is this the only thing moving markets today...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 23 Sep 2021 | 11:41 am
MLO, Ops Jobs; Blockchain, Compliance Training, Consumer Complaint Products; Fed weighs in
Posted To: Pipeline Press
This morning the Mortgage Bankers Association's Research Institute for Housing America (RIHA) released, The Impact of Climate Change on Housing and Housing Finance .” Whether or not you believe in it, if it impacts MBS pricing, it impacts your borrowers , and what are you going to do about it? Strategy is for amateurs; execution is for professionals. And Earnest Hemingway noted, “Never mistake motion for action,” but there is plenty of actual, and perceived, examples of all of this at Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, relayed from the FHFA. Talk of exiting conservatorship (if it’s not broke, why fix it?) has vanished, replaced by forging ahead with their missions, executing the game plan of the Biden Administration, and acting on helping first time and minority home buyers...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 23 Sep 2021 | 8:05 am
MBS Morning: Bonds Choosing a Side After Fed Day
Posted To: MBS Commentary
Wednesday's reaction to the Fed was essentially a non-reaction with yields ending the day very close to pre-Fed levels. Traders were more willing to make stronger bets in the overnight session and that momentum is gathering steam at the start of the domestic session. 10yr yields quickly find themselves knocking on the 1.37% ceiling despite a lack of new inspiration. This is the 'unseen hand' at its finest (bigger picture, strategic trading motivations as the deepest pockets reposition for the road ahead). If you simply must have a scapegoat, the 30k-ish drop in case counts (Wed vs Wed) is a great place to start. The typical 10yr yield candlestick chart runs the risk of endorsing complacency at the moment because the consolidation pattern hasn't yet been officially broken. While...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 23 Sep 2021 | 7:03 am
Epic Fed Needle Threading Leaves Rates Relatively Unchanged
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch
Mortgage rates were surprisingly steady today as the bond market reacted to a new policy announcement from the Fed. Perhaps "reacted" is the wrong word considering the market's response. Specifically, the bond market (which dictates interest rates on mortgages and beyond) was hard to distinguish from most any other random trading day. That's nothing short of impressive given what transpired. So what transpired? That requires a bit of background, but let's make it quick. The Fed is currently buying $120 bln / month in new Treasuries and MBS. These purchases greatly contribute to the low rate environment for mortgages. The Fed has done this, off and on in the past since 2009. 2013 was the first major example of the Fed "tapering" its monthly bond purchases after an extended period of accommodation...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Sep 2021 | 2:31 pm
MBS RECAP: Powell Confirms Taper Timeline, But Bonds Barely Budge
Posted To: MBS Commentary
Powell Effectively Confirms November Taper Barring NFP Catastrophe Bonds reacted well to the initial Fed announcement and economic projections, but reversed course during Fed Chair Powell's press conference. Powell pulled no punches in confirming the likelihood of tapering in November unless the next jobs report were to come in significantly weaker than expected. While bonds definitely reacted to those comments, the scope of the move was remarkably contained in the bigger picture. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm Existing Home Sales 5.88m vs 5.89m f'cast, 6.00m prev Market Movement Recap 08:41 AM Slightly weaker overnight as broader market had a risk-on bounce following some news on Evergrande. Yields were only about 1bp higher, but domestic investors pounced at 8...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Sep 2021 | 1:31 pm
Differences Between Previous and Current FOMC Statements
Posted To: MBS Commentary
The Federal Reserve is committed to using its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy in this challenging time, thereby promoting its maximum employment and price stability goals. With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. The sectors most adversely affected by the pandemic have shown improvementimproved in recent months, but have not fully recovered. Inflationthe rise in COVID-19 cases has risen,slowed their recovery. Inflation is elevated, largely reflecting transitory factors. Overall financial conditions remain accommodative, in part reflecting policy measures to support the economy and the flow of credit to U.S. households and businesses. The path of the economy continues to depend on the...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Sep 2021 | 11:01 am
MBA, LO, AE Jobs; Non-QM, Jumbo, BPO, BE/Mand, Sales Products; Whole Loan/PSPA Execution Change
Posted To: Pipeline Press
Once a week it is Wednesday… but this one is noteworthy. An equinox is the instant of time when the plane of Earth's equator passes through the geometric center of the Sun's disk. That’s today, and is the official move from summer into autumn in the northern hemisphere. Moving from astronomy to law, lawyers for two Ohio counties filed a Sept. 21 bench brief asking a federal judge to exclude 39 unvaccinated jurors from an Oct. 4 trial that seeks to hold several pharmacies accountable for the opioid crisis. "A significant number of potential jurors indicated on their questionnaires that they would not feel comfortable or safe serving on a jury with unvaccinated individuals," they wrote. How’s your staff’s return to the office going? Shifting back to lending, a borrower...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Sep 2021 | 7:35 am
MBS Morning: Tapering Should Remain on Hold, But Still Lots to Consider on Fed Day
Posted To: MBS Commentary
We've been pining for this particular Fed day for weeks, at least. In fact, as early as June 1st, we pointed out that Fed speakers seemed to suggest their decision-making hands were tied until they could observe labor market changes at the start of the new school year. Then in late July, we added the delta variant to that conversation as another reason to delay a tapering decision. Epidemiologists guessed that case counts would peak in late August. They were pretty close based on weekly numbers peaking in early September. The Fed could take some solace in that fact--especially considering school has been back in session for several weeks and daily case counts are still declining week-over-week in most states. The counterpoint is that the cases/deaths chart still looks like this: In other...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Sep 2021 | 7:02 am
Inventories Pushing Buyers Toward New Homes
Posted To: MND NewsWire
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) estimates that there were 17 percent fewer applications for new home purchases in August than in July, but those applications were 9 percent greater year-over-year. The figures, gathered from MBA's monthly Builder Application Survey (BAS) are not adjusted to reflect seasonal patterns. "Mortgage applications to purchase new homes were down in August compared to 2020's late summer surge, but both mortgage applications and MBA's estimate of new home sales jumped last month compared to July," said Joel Kan, MBA's Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. "While the new home construction market is a much smaller segment of the overall housing market, prospective buyers are increasingly turning to new homes because of the very low levels...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Sep 2021 | 5:10 am
Mortgage Applications Rise, Reflecting Improved Inventories
Posted To: MND NewsWire
The volume of applications for first mortgages grew by 4.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the first full week after Labor Day. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume increased 16 percent during the week ended September 17. The prior week's numbers had been adjusted to account for the holiday. The Refinance Index increased 7 percent from the previous week but was 5 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66.2 percent of total applications from 64.9 percent the previous week. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index was 2 percent higher week-over-week and up 12 percent unadjusted. Volume was 13 percent lower than the same week one year ago. Refi...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Sep 2021 | 5:08 am
MBS RECAP: A Few Strategy Considerations Ahead of The Fed
Posted To: MBS Commentary
"Inside Day" Placeholder Ahead of Wednesday's Main Event The AM commentary revisited and reiterated the consolidation range that's been intact for more than a month. As far back as 2.5 weeks ago (after the last jobs report) it became increasingly clear that the bond market stood its greatest chance of breaking out of the consolidation range after the September 22nd Fed announcement. The direction, magnitude, and sustainability of that breakout remains to be seen, but after today's trading range fell completely inside yesterday's (hence the "inside day"), a post-Fed breakout is increasingly likely. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm Housing Starts 1.615 vs 1.555m f'cast, 1.554m prev Building Permits 1.728m vs 1.600m f'cast, 1.630m...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Sep 2021 | 12:54 pm
Mortgage Rates Little-Changed Ahead of Fed Day
Posted To: Mortgage Rate Watch
By the end of last week, mortgage rates moved up to match their highest levels in 2 months. After a modest recovery yesterday, today's rates are little-changed. As is often the case when examining day-to-day rate changes, we're talking about relatively small movements in the bigger picture. The average mortgage seeker would likely be seeing the same "note rate" on almost any day in more than a month now. In the most extreme circumstances, the change would be limited to 0.125% (typically the smallest increment separating different rate offerings for most lenders). When the bond market doesn't justify an entire eighth of a percent, lenders make adjustments via upfront costs/credits. In this way, the "effective rate" is changing every day even if the "note rate" is not. Certain days carry increased...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Sep 2021 | 11:24 am
Construction Numbers Pushed Higher by Multifamily Surge
Posted To: MND NewsWire
Residential construction numbers were a surprise again in August. Permits for construction and housing starts were both higher than expected, however, multifamily numbers were driving the results. Housing permits were issued at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.728 million units, a 6.0 percent increase from the 1.630 million permit rate (revised down from 1.635 million) in July and 13.5 percent higher than the 1.522 million number in August 2020. Analysts had expected permits to pull back from the July pace. Those polled by both Econoday and Trading Economics had projected permits at 1.6 million units. Single family permits were only fractionally higher than the prior month, a 0.6 percent gain from 1.048 million to 1.054 million units. Permits for construction in buildings containing five...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Sep 2021 | 8:36 am
Freddie Mac Confirms Heightened Appraisal Gaps in Minority Areas
Posted To: MND NewsWire
A cluster of stories about appraised values of homes in minority areas hit the national news earlier this summer and now Freddie Mac has released an analysis of the smoke/fire variety. The company says it found appraised values are more likely to fall below the contracted sale price of a home in census tracts with a higher share of Black and Latino households, resulting in what is known as an appraisal gap. This is precisely what was alleged in news reports. Further, the extent of that gap increases as the percentage of persons of color living in the census tract grows. Freddie Mac based its analysis on 12 million appraisals it received as part of the home purchase process between 2015 and 2020. "An appraisal falling below the contracted sale price may allow a buyer to renegotiate with a seller...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Sep 2021 | 8:34 am
Sales, MLO Jobs; Education, Tax, Sales, Pre-Qual, Licensing Products; Lender Stock Prices; Events; Forbearance Improvement
Posted To: Pipeline Press
A sign in the window reads CURED MEATS. Inside, a salami takes his first steps since the accident. A prosciutto learns to forgive. There are all kind of things going on! First, a healthy, active secondary market helps rates in the primary markets. Fannie Mae announced its intention to enter into new credit risk transfer ( CRT ) transactions in the fourth quarter of 2021 through its Connecticut Avenue Securities® (CAS) and Credit Insurance Risk Transfer™ (CIRT™) programs. In anticipation of the Agency loan limit increase for 2022, PennyMac is offering brokers conforming high balance loan amounts up to at least $625,000 in all states and counties except New York state, effective with today’s locks. Some things are eternal, like the swallows returning to Capistrano or the...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Sep 2021 | 7:41 am
MBS Morning: With 1 Day Left, Pre-Fed Range Remains Intact
Posted To: MBS Commentary
Trading ranges and consolidation patterns can make for tedious discussion when they're well-behaved for weeks on end. We began discussing the current example in mid-August when the 1.38% ceiling was first rejected. The following week suggested it was less of a "range" and more of a consolidation pattern--a theme that dominated the analysis ever since. Despite a valiant attempt after last week's CPI data and yesterday's snowball risk-off rally (thanks Evergrande?), today begins with yields safely inside the same old range. Barring another unexpected mini-shock, we're left with the same conclusion as in recent weeks: a true range breakout remains most likely after tomorrow's Fed announcement. The following charts are included just for kicks this morning. They show...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Sep 2021 | 6:54 am
MBS RECAP: Surprise Snowball Rally as Stocks Swoon Over Global Risks
Posted To: MBS Commentary
Surprise Snowball Rally as Stocks Swoon Over Global Risks When it comes to stocks vs bonds, pundits generally give too much credit to one side for movement in the other. In fact, on days with big movement in both markets, it's not uncommon to see stock people blaming the bond market and bond people blaming the stock market. In today's case, the bond rally wasn't even in the same league as the bond sell-off, and the latter was clearly the flag-bearer for a broad risk-off rally that offered solid support for bonds. It remains to be seen how long the stock swoon continues as there is some disagreement about whether the Evergrande drama deserves as much credit as it received today. Either way, bonds simply endured an in-range correction, and they remain more susceptible to Wednesday's...(read more)Forward this article via email: Send a copy of this story to someone you know that may want to read it.
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 20 Sep 2021 | 1:18 pm
