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Mortgage Rates Jump Back Into The 6's

Mortgage rates began the new week with a fairly quick jump back into the low 6% range (top tier 30yr fixed rate for the average lender). With the news cycle very focused on developments in Iran, most coverage attempts to correlate geopolitical events with market movement. The only legitimate way to do this would be to say that upward pressure on oil prices is translating to higher inflation implications and therefore higher rates. At many times in the past, this would be a solid conclusion. To some small extent, a case could even be made for this correlation accounting for a portion of today's weakness. But most of the big, directional moves in oil prices over the past 2 days have failed to correlated with big moves in the bond market.  Even when we zoom out to wider frames of reference, we see counterintuitive developments over the past several years. When oil peaked around $120/bbl in 2022, 10yr Treasury yields were around 3%. When oil fell sharply into 2023, bond yields continued moving up and have held flat for the last few years even as oil gently declined. Nonetheless, there are also pockets of correlation where we can see the two lines moving in the same direction. The only problem with that is that oil and rates can both respond to a third variable: economic strength. On that note, this week's economic data may be just as big of an influence on rate momentum while geopolitical developments represent a wild card that can create a backdrop of volatility.

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 2 Mar 2026 | 8:19 pm

HELOC, AI/Compliance, eNote Products; Skiing and AI Events/Training; Capital Markets

In what seems to be the blink of an eye we’re down two months of 2026, and by most accounts they were decent for lenders and vendors. Here in Ft. Lauderdale at the Lenders One Summit, the talk in the hallways, like that at several recent conferences, is centered around a handful of topics, M&A being one of them, and the desire for companies to control the “funnel.” STRATMOR’s Garth Graham, who resides nearby, last night told me that STRATMOR has a full complement of buyers and sellers and we discussed the Rocket/Compass deal and its relation to the Rocket/Redfin deal. Will the 80-basis point “spiff” motivate brokers to move business away from other leader wholesalers? The United States and Israel attacking Iran is certainly a topic, and along those lines the “disappearance” of the traditional “flight to quality” when something like this happens. Types of production are also a favorite topic at conferences, and I received this note. “Rob, my team and I have only done a handful of ‘mainstream’ loans in the last several months. We’re doing more private money loans than ever before, more non-Agency, and deals that take several months. Are you hearing this from others? Absolutely. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Feewise, which turns mortgage compliance from bottleneck to business accelerator. Handle all the complexities involved with establishing TRID compliant fees and disclosures, achieve sign off, and deliver packages to your consumers for review or signature. Hear an interview with FirstClose’s Andria Lightfoot on modernizing processes with low-lift digital entry points to eliminate bottlenecks, boost borrower satisfaction, and stay competitive in the evolving home equity market.)

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 2 Mar 2026 | 4:54 pm

March Starts Sharply Weaker. Is it Iran?

Spoiler alert: it's not Iran. And this morning's yields are the 2nd lowest in more than 3 months behind last Friday. Last Friday was also a month-end trading day with a mini snowball rally that defied overt explanation (apart from "month end bond buying")--a fact that led us to warn about the risk of "new month bond selling."  It's not that bonds always rally at month-end or sell off when the new month begins, but if there's a sharp, inexplicable move on the last day of any given month, the risks of a reversal increase on the first day of the following month. Geopolitical headlines may cause modest volatility here and there, but bonds' correlation with oil prices is not a reliable analytical focus. The next chart shows what oil and bond yields had been doing on the last 3 days of last week.  Notice the extreme absence of correlation. Here's the move so far today--the one that has people concluding that bond yields are higher because oil is higher.  In fact, versus the 3pm CME close on Friday, bonds were flat until 7am.  By that time, oil had already experienced almost all its volatility for the day.  The crux of the bond sell-off played out in a vacuum--STRONGLY suggesting Friday's yields were dragged down by month-end buying and this morning's selling is "new month" positioning. 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 2 Mar 2026 | 2:33 pm

Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close

Bonds Cap Stellar Week/Month With Strongest Close Bonds ended the week/month at their strongest levels with 10yr yields breaking below the 4.0% floor to close at 3.95+.  In addition to the low outright levels, the journey was accomplished with minimal volatility along the way. This is potentially surprising given this morning's much higher PPI numbers, but as discussed in the AM commentary, PPI is notoriously volatile and hasn't had a noticeable impact since 2024. Next week brings the typical early month, big ticket econ data (ISM, ADP, and the jobs report). Econ Data / Events Core PPI m/m (Jan) 0.8% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.7% prev PPI m/m (Jan) 0.5% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.5% prev PPI y/y (Jan) 2.9% vs 2.6% f'cast, 3% prev Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM No reaction despite balmy PPI.  MNS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 3.982 01:03 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yhr down 3.5bps at 3.969 03:27 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3.7 bps at 3.967

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 27 Feb 2026 | 9:24 pm

Mortgage Rates End Week at Best Levels

At this point, it is getting a bit repetitive to bring up "the lowest rates in more than 3 years"--something that was officially the case twice this week. If we give rates credit for stably holding these long-term lows (and we should!), then every day this week has been the best in more than 3 years. Here's the specific record: at no other time in the history of our rate index have rates begun a week at long-term lows and experienced so little volatility. There was a somewhat similar stretch of 4 days in March 2019, but rates had only hit a 2 year low at the time. On average, when rates hit the lowest levels in more than a year, the next 4 business days see a range of 0.07-0.08%. That makes this week's 0.01% range truly special.

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 27 Feb 2026 | 6:56 pm

Mortgage Demand Calm Before The Storm?

Mortgage application activity edged ever-so-slightly higher last week, with the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reporting an increase of 0.4% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending February 20. Refi applications continue to do the heavy lifting. The Refinance Index increased 4% from the previous week and was 150% higher than the same week one year ago. Conventional refinance applications rose 5% for the week, while VA refinances jumped 26%, as rates declined to their lowest levels since September 2022. Notably, rates have moved even lower this week and have held these new multi-year lows in very stable fashion. If history is any guide, this should lead to an even higher refi index next week. Purchase demand moved lower, falling 5% on a seasonally adjusted basis, though activity remains 12% higher than the same week one year ago.  Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist, attributed the modest increase in overall activity to declining Treasury yields, which helped push the 30-year fixed rate to its lowest level in several months. The composition of activity shifted further toward refinances. The refinance share of total applications increased to 58.6% from 57.4% the prior week, while ARM share held steady at 8.2% . FHA share decreased to 16.1% , VA share rose to 18.7% , and USDA share remained unchanged at 0.4% .

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 27 Feb 2026 | 6:27 pm

Home Prices Still Rising, But Pace Remains Subdued

Home price appreciation pulled back slightly at the end of last year, according to December data from both FHFA and S&P/Cotality Case-Shiller. The reports reinforce the message that prices continued to appreciate modestly through the end of 2025. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted House Price Index shows home prices up 1.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 0.8% quarter-over-quarter . On a monthly basis, prices rose just 0.1% in December , suggesting continued but subdued momentum. On a 3-month basis (which helps smooth out month-to-month volatility while still capturing more granular movement), appreciation has recovered from the early 2025 dip and is back in a normal pre-pandemic range. State- and regional-level data underscore the ongoing divergence. House prices rose in 41 states over the past year, led by North Dakota (+6.4%), Delaware (+6.3%), Illinois (+6.1%), Wisconsin (+5.7%), and Michigan (+5.5%). Florida posted the largest annual decline (-2.7%). Among census divisions, the East North Central region led with a 5.0% annual gain, while the Mountain division recorded a slight decline (-0.2%). The Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index posted a 1.3% year-over-year gain in December, down slightly from 1.4% previously and marking the weakest full-year performance since 2011. After seasonal adjustment, the national index rose 0.4% month-over-month . The 20-City Composite showed a 1.4% annual gain , unchanged from the prior month, and increased 0.5% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 27 Feb 2026 | 6:10 pm

Fraud, Processing, Verification Waterfall Products; Fairway and Insurance; Conv. Conforming Changes

Can’t you feel the anticipation building? March 5th… Trigger leads… Don’t tell me that you’ve forgotten all about it. When a borrower applies for a mortgage and their credit is pulled, that data has historically been sold as a “trigger lead” and dozens of calls are received. Starting March 5, according to the law, credit bureaus can no longer sell trigger leads, the borrower’s lender can still contact them, and the current servicer may also reach out. Originators are reminding clients that online forms and third-party sites can still resell their information, so where they click still matters. Meanwhile, our MBA and others continue to tell the Administration that the costs lender incur in providing financing for homes is passed on to borrowers whose loans actually fund. “Talk about affordability……why don’t the agencies bring down rates by lowering loan level price adjustments (LLPAs) and guarantee fees (GFs). It is evident that they are overpricing credit risk.” When was the last time you heard a government official talk about lowering homeowner’s insurance costs, condo fees, or permitting & utility costs? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose, a leading home equity technology platform that combines digital application, automated workflows, integrated vendor management, and seamless LOS connectivity, to turn home equity into a scalable, predictable growth engine. Hear an interview with MakeMyMove’s Evan Hock on new data that shows that many financially stable, middle-income households are being priced out of homeownership in major metros not by monthly affordability but by lack of access, prompting relocations to smaller regional hubs where similar housing costs unlock ownership, stability, and better quality of life.)

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 27 Feb 2026 | 4:17 pm

Starting Out Under 4.0% Despite Hotter PPI

We'd already discussed the fact that PPI has fallen by the wayside as a relevant market mover for bonds despite one or two instances of relevance nearly 2 years ago when bonds were desperate for any hints of change. Today's PPI results and the ensuing bond market movement leave no doubt as to the relevance of this data. Spoiler alert: there's basically no relevance at the moment. The following chart expresses some uncertainty in labeling this morning's small bump in yields as a reaction to PPI. Reasons being: it didn't begin until 8:38am and the volume reaction happened from 8:30-8:34am.  Splitting hairs though... Even if that was the reaction, it was small and quickly erased. It's also good to remember how volatile PPI is as a series, and how low volatility has been recently in the bigger picture. 

Source: Mortgage News Daily | 27 Feb 2026 | 2:29 pm