What's New in Real Estate!
Capital Markets, TPO, CRM, AI Products; Bloomberg and Wells' Correspondent
Florida is the source of a sizeable percentage of home loans and fine lenders, as well as plenty of “Florida Man” stories. (Don’t read if easily offended.) I head to Orlando this morning, where (unlike this week’s rain and lightning) there are an average of 233 sunny days per year, in addition to the FAMP event this week. Speaking of sunny days, if they can make a car paint that can “heal” scratches by being out in the sun, wouldn’t you think someone could invent a new mortgage product? There are new things in the land of real estate agents, and thank you to Indiana’s Carol K. who, as a notary, recently completed a rather interesting assignment. “It was for a ‘Homeowner Benefit Program’ where the real estate company is buying the rights to be the real estate agents who sell the owner’s property if and when they sell. You get $500 to sign a contract with them that says if you ever decide to sell, you will use them as your agent. Something for a lender to consider. (Available here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by Agile, the mortgage industry's MBS fintech. Bringing the mortgage capital markets into a new digital era. From lenders to dealers, Agile is the new way to quote MBS. Today’s has an interview with Built Technologies' Jim Fraser on originating and managing loans to build or improve housing. Broker and Lender Services and Software I don't know… doesn't it seem like a good time to lower your costs? Here's an idea: turn your fixed staff overhead into variable costs by outsourcing your processing, underwriting, and closing functions to the fulfillment team at Computershare Loan Services (CLS). They are ready to help you with your entire pipeline from conventional, non-QM, and FHA loans to multiple product types, including HELOCs. CLS can fulfill one part of the originations process or all of it! They save clients an average of 30% on back-office operational expenses, so why wait? Contact the team at Computershare Loan Services to learn how they can help your business thrive.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 15 Aug 2022 | 2:43 pm
Strong Start Reinforcing Lower Range Ceiling
The previous week ended with bonds on the run and yields threatening to break up and over the 2.85% technical level. That breakout was somewhat inconclusive by Friday afternoon as a modest rally resulted in levels of 2.849% at the 3pm CME close. The same ceiling was tested again in the overnight session, but buyers jumped in fairly quickly with gains ramping up into domestic hours. All of the above builds the sense that last week constituted a failed breakout attempt and that 2.85% can continue to stand as a supportive ceiling until proven otherwise. If 2.85% is the ceiling, 2.82% would be like the ceiling fan for bond bulls. In other words, staying below 2.85% would be good, but 2.82 would be even better. In fact, since late July, there's been more frequent technical support at 2.82% whereas 2.85% has only seen a few instances of overrun. As far as bond bears are concerned, yields have been in a fairly linear uptrend for most of August, and we're currently close to the lower boundary of that trend channel. As such, we might want to keep an eye on 2.76% for bounce potential at the beginning of the week.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 15 Aug 2022 | 2:07 pm
Stable and Sideways Now That Rates Are Back in The Range
Stable and Sideways Now That Rates Are Back in The Range The past two days had seen more volatility in rates markets as traders reconciled lower inflation readings and upbeat economic data. The net effect was a fairly quick move back up into the familiar old "sideways, volatile range." As rates hit the 2.91% pivot point yesterday (and again overnight), there was immediately less of an impulse to sell. As they drifted back down to the 2.85% technical level, there was less of an impulse to buy. This resulted in a surprisingly calm, sideways Friday afternoon. Econ Data / Events Import Prices -1.4 vs -1.0 f'cast, 0.3 prev Export Prices -3.3 vs -1.1 f'cast, 0.7 prev Consumer Sentiment 55.1 vs 52.5 f'cast, 51.5 prev Expectations 54.9 vs 48.4 f'cast, 47.3 prev 1yr Inflation outlook up 0.1 5yr Inflation outlook down 0.2 Market Movement Recap 08:56 AM Slightly stronger overnight, mostly during Asian hours. Choppier and more sideways in Europe. Now holding gains in early domestic trading. 10yr down 3.5bps at 2.857 and MBS up 2 ticks (0.06). 10:08 AM MBS down a quick eighth after Consumer Sentiment data. Biggest surprise: "expectations" index at 54.9 vs 47.3 prev. 01:49 PM Bonds holding ground fairly well with modest gains. MBS are off the earlier lows, up roughly an eighth on the day, and flat for 2-3 hours. 10yr yields are down 4bps and trading calmly. 05:20 PM Out the door in sharply sideways fashion. MBS traded a 3 tick (0.09) range for the past 7 hours, and wasn't much outside that even at the extremes.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 12 Aug 2022 | 9:28 pm
Reconciling Recently Irrational Rate Movement (It's Actually Rational!)
Source: Mortgage News Daily | 12 Aug 2022 | 9:05 pm
Supportive Start And a Closer Look at 2.91%
Summertime trading is detectably different from the rest of the year. Volume and liquidity are a bit lighter. Counterintuitive moves are more common. And there's a risk of a bit more volatility than events justify. Thursday was arguably one of those days, but Mondays and Fridays are the habitual worst offenders. There's no way to tell when we're about to see one of the bigger, more random summertime moves, but in today's case, at least we have a convenient technical backdrop to help gauge significance. 2.85% and 2.91% have been the most relevant overhead technical levels for 10yr yields over the past 24 hours. 2.85% has already been challenged due to an upbeat Consumer Sentiment reading, but 2.91% may be the more relevant level anyway. It definitely saw more action as a floor in July and it's closer to the intersection of the current, short-term consolidation pattern. As always, there's no predictive value to be gleaned from technical breaks, but they can confirm general trends. When it comes to 2.91, a sustained break above would confirm that bonds are increasingly giving up the recent flight of low-rate fancy driven by weaker econ data in late July (see "too cold" below) and are more interested in getting back into the same sideways, volatile range that was taking shape as early as 4 months ago. Incidentally, 2.91 was fairly central to that range as well.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 12 Aug 2022 | 3:45 pm
DSCR, Credit Union, Subservicer Oversight Products; News From Wholesalers; Home Point Earnings
Loan officers who’d like to learn a thing or two about the current prospecting environment are invited to listen in today at 2PM CT/noon PT as Steve Richman discusses how LO’s activities are much more important than near-term results, database management is critical, new LOs shouldn’t mind going after traditional lower-level referral partners, and the importance of making calls and working on a Friday afternoon. And while we’re on sales, and marketing, the STRATMOR Group has an upcoming virtual workshop for senior retail sales, marketing executives, and CEOs. The workshop is focused on action items and best practices for sales and marketing leaders, focusing entirely on “what is most important and relevant in today’s changing and challenging market, and along with a panel of STRATMOR experts, you’ll hear from your peers about what is working right now… Three short and interactive power packed sessions are spread over three days (Aug 23-25) so you can keep your schedule on track – plus we’ll deliver an exclusive action plan following the event to all registrants. Email Jim Cameron to learn more. Is the failure to lend in certain neighborhoods the same as avoiding lending in those neighborhoods? The recent fair lending Consent Order and state AG settlements “sticking it” to Berkshire Hathaway affiliate Trident Mortgage in Philadelphia gets a review by attorney and Mortgage Musings blogger Brian Levy. (Available here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by SimpleNexus, an nCino company and award-winning developer of mobile-first technology for the modern mortgage lender. Today’s has an interview with interview with.)Source: Mortgage News Daily | 12 Aug 2022 | 2:43 pm
Rates Are Actually Lower Than Last Week (Despite Moving Higher Today)
When it comes to mortgage rates, Thursdays frequently lend themselves to a discussion about fact versus fiction (or "delayed fact" as it may be) in news headlines. Reasons for this are laid out in detail here. For those who don't click links, here's the short version: many reporters rely on Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey for one big weekly update on mortgage rates. The survey is out on Thursday mornings, but most responses are in early in the week. Bottom line: if rates move much on Tue/Wed/Thu, news headlines may indicate a big move in the opposite direction from reality. The current example isn't quite as bad as last week's, but it's still wrong. The survey said rates were sharply higher this week, but they're still lower for the average lender. One reason for the smaller discrepancy is that rates have indeed been moving higher over the past 2 days. Change hasn't been extreme, but it has lifted the average lender back up from the brink of the "high 4%" range seen last Thursday.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 11 Aug 2022 | 9:56 pm
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling
Making Sense of Today's Seemingly Senseless Selling Let's refresh our memories regarding 2022's bond trading: a sharp acceleration in inflation concerns led to a big shift from the Fed and heavy selling in the bond market and aggressive flattening of the yield curve. Now we're tasked with making sense of more heavy selling in the bond market following a big DROP in inflation. The steepening of the yield curve is one way to begin that process. Today (and this week in general) it was compounded by Treasury supply in the longer part of the curve and a bounce back from overbought technicals. Econ Data / Events Headline PPI m/m -0.5 vs 0.2 f'cast, 1.0 prev y/y 9.8 vs 10.4 f'cast Core PPI m/m 0.2 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.4 prev y/y 7.6 vs 7.6 f'cast, 8.4 prev Jobless Claims 262k vs 263k f'cast, 248k prev Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Sideways to slightly stronger in the overnight session with most of the gains coming between 7:30 and 8:10am ET. Losing some ground after 8:30am data. 10yr down 2bps at 2.764 and MBS up a quarter point. 01:03 PM Steady selling after 10am and a bit more after the 30yr bond auction just now. 10yr up 6bps at 2.846. MBS down a quarter point on the day and roughly half a point from the highs. 02:41 PM Selling continues. New lows for MBS, now down more than 3/8ths on the day and more than 5/8ths from rate sheet print times. 10yr yields are up more than 11bps at 2.897. 04:35 PM Flatter trading for Treasuries over the past 2 hours. MBS have lost another tick or two.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 11 Aug 2022 | 9:21 pm
More Tame Inflation; More Bond Losses
Up is down, old is new, green is red, etc. Here we are with a second straight day with inflation data coming in significantly lower than forecast and the second straight day with bonds paradoxically weakening. Today's version is a bit different. Yesterday began with a decent, logical head start into positive territory. Yields were much closer to unchanged this morning and didn't have any sort of rally in response to the PPI miss. As for rationale, we'll have to talk about things we otherwise wouldn't talk about if bonds were rallying. In other words, this is one of those times where we have to go hunting for a narrative to fit the trading. Some of these would have applied anyway. They include things like the Treasury supply environment, corporate issuance, and the technical landscape. On that note, 2.85% merits some vigilance in terms of 10yr yields even though MBS have been outperforming 10s. Today brings the final Treasury auction of the week at 1pm ET.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 11 Aug 2022 | 4:57 pm
