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Mortgage Rates Hold Same Level For 3rd Straight Day
Given that rates take cues from bonds and bonds take cues from economic data, it's perhaps no surprise to see an absence of volatility in rates on a week that has very little to offer in terms of economic data. Still, mortgage rates usually manage to move a bit even when there are no compelling events to react to. Why is this week different? Simply put, there are just some stretches of time that see very little bond market movement and, thus, very little rate movement. This could be chalked up to coincidence, an absence of motivation, indecision regarding the impact of new policy announcements, the market's desire to level off after a decent improvement last week, or a combination of all of the above. Whatever the justifications (or coincidences) may be, the average lender's top tier 30yr fixed rate hasn't budged so far this week.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Jan 2025 | 8:38 pm
Resistance Kicking In
Bonds rallied yesterday, largely in an attempt to catch up with the movement that occurred on Monday when cash trading was closed (futures and other markets implied moderate gains). In the slightly bigger picture, the recent gains have had most to do with last week's economic data and a small amount to do with Monday's executive orders surrounding tariffs. It continues to be the case that bonds would need to see a marked downturn in economic data or inflation for any big, near-term rally. Without that, technicals and supply/demand have increased significance. With today's 20yr bond auction (small though it may be) and the resistance at 4.57% in 10yr Treasuries, it's not too surprising to see some early selling.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Jan 2025 | 5:23 pm
Spanish, Housing Outlook, DPA Products; California Fire Update; Webinars This Week
A fake image of Brad Pitt was used to scam a woman out of $850,000. (Hopefully every lender has set up policies and procedures regarding events like the CFO receiving an email from the CEO asking to blindly wire money for a “secret acquisition.”) Remember when you could buy a great house for $850k? Although Los Angeles will be under great strain for years, in many areas you still can buy a house for that, but home builders are reporting a rise in cancellations due to increased mortgage rates, which surpassed 7 percent for the first time in seven months. While builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes improved slightly in January, concerns about inflation, tariffs on building materials, and government deficits persist. The National Association of Home Builders forecasts modest growth in housing starts for 2025, but the ongoing impact of high mortgage rates is leading some builders to cut home prices, with 30 percent offering average discounts of 5 percent. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Lender Toolkit's new Prism. Experience a quantum leap in accuracy and efficiency as you streamline workflows, reduce errors, and close loans faster. Prism's advanced OCR boasts 99 percent accuracy across 1,450+ document types. Effortlessly index, analyze, and underwrite crucial data with their intelligent system. Today’s has an interview with Lender Toolkit’s Joe Sorbello and VanDyk Mortgage’s Lindsey Kuhnle on how companies can properly onboard and implement new tech offerings.)Source: Mortgage News Daily | 22 Jan 2025 | 4:47 pm
Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains
Bonds Calmly Hold Overnight Gains This morning's commentary focused on a bond rally in response to an absence of heavy-handed specificity in Trump's initial salvo of executive orders--specifically with respect to trade policy. In not so many words, massive, immediate tariffs have been referred to agencies for research and comment. Bonds (via futures) rallied on the news yesterday and into the overnight session. Without any new sources of inspiration today, the overnight gains remained intact and volatility was generally absent. Market Movement Recap 09:52 AM Moderately stronger overnight with implied gains on Monday in Treasury futures. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down roughly 5bps at 4.577 01:32 PM Roughly an eighth of a point below best levels. MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.577 03:43 PM Calmly holding gains. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.564Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Jan 2025 | 9:54 pm
Mortgage Rates Unimpacted by New Executive Orders
Mortgage rates are driven predominantly by the bond market and bonds were able to clear up a few curiosities on inauguration day. Specifically, traders expected multiple executive orders with several focusing on proposed tariffs. While history suggests the conventional wisdom may be faulty, the general belief is that tariffs increase inflation. Considering inflation correlates with higher rates, there was some relief in rates when the executive orders concerning tariffs turned out to be less aggressive than expected. In not so many words, the president ordered various agencies to asses trade agreements/deficits and recommend measures to address them, such as tariffs. Bonds were thus able to hold onto the gains from last week with some additional improvement today. The average mortgage lender wasn't eager to adjust rates, however, with the top tier 30yr fixed rate remaining unchanged from last Friday.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Jan 2025 | 9:36 pm
Non-QM, DPA, HELOC, Borrower Servicing Products; FTC and Leads; Freddie,Fannie, and FHFA News
Please don’t touch my pizza! In a decision that has left countless fans disappointed,, including many in the mortgage ranks, Costco has decided to remove the $1.25 fries option from the food court menu entirely. The decision comes at a time when the retailer identified certain items as being “loss leaders,” which include the $5 rotisserie chicken, the $1.50 hot dog and soda combo (which we hope never goes anywhere) and now, the fries. On top of that, Costco workers have voted to strike, and they’re serious. At the other end of the economic spectrum, the Trumps have launched their own cryptocurrencies… I’ve lost track of the billions added to their net worth. (Freddie and Fannie accept virtual currencies under certain circumstances.) On the regulatory front, attorney Brian Levy seems to have rethought his criticism of DOGE’s lack of seriousness. After a barrage of CFPB action in the presumed final days of Rohit Chopra’s tenure, Levy muses on the prospects for reform under new CFPB leadership in his latest Mortgage Musings. (Sign up here for a free subscription.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Lender Toolkit's new Prism. Experience a quantum leap in accuracy and efficiency as you streamline workflows, reduce errors, and close loans faster. Prism's advanced OCR boasts 99 percent accuracy across 1,450+ document types. Effortlessly index, analyze, and underwrite crucial data with their intelligent system. Today’s has an interview with EquityProtect’s Jon Dovidio on industry solutions to deed theft and title fraud.)Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Jan 2025 | 4:40 pm
Bonds Open Stronger Thanks to Tariff Uncertainty
Trump issued numerous executive orders on Monday, but conspicuously absent was any specific directive regarding tariffs. This was one of the key areas of focus for financial markets. While there are few different ways it could be traded, one of the simplest was from an inflation standpoint. With specifics TBD, bonds breathed a modest sigh of relief on inflation implications. There was an immediate reaction at 8:30am yesterday (in futures) following WSJ's reporting on the tariff delay. There's been some volatility in the interim, but bonds have managed to improve a bit more since then.Source: Mortgage News Daily | 21 Jan 2025 | 3:57 pm
Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful
Slightly Weaker Drift, But Broadly Uneventful Friday may as well have been a 4th weekend day for the bond market. Volume and liquidity were obviously in holiday mode. Trading levels were basically flat, although it might not feel that way if you're seeing MBS prices end the day down more than an eighth of a point. It's unclear whether we're seeing actual weakness at the end of the day or an incidental expression of extremely thin liquidity. Even if it's "real," it's still not bad considering where we were on Tuesday afternoon. Econ Data / Events Building Permits 1.483m vs 1.460m f'cast Housing Starts 1.499m vs 1.320m f'cast Market Movement Recap 09:37 AM stronger overnight but giving up those gains in the past hour. MBS now unchanged and 10yr down half a bp at 4.609 01:57 PM Sideways at the lows. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.608 04:05 PM Weakest levels of the day. MBS down an eighth of a point and 10yr up 0.4bps at 4.617Source: Mortgage News Daily | 17 Jan 2025 | 9:56 pm
Uneventful Day For Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market and Friday was the least active day of the week for bonds. There were no major economic reports to cause rapid changes in trading levels. As such, mortgage rates started out very close to the levels seen yesterday and most lenders didn't make any mid-day changes. The absence of any significant movement is a victory, of sorts, in light of the ground covered over the past 2 days (the best 2-day improvement since November). On the other hand, rates began the week at the highest levels since May 2024. It's more common to see bigger gains when rates are recovering from long term highs--a fact that detracts from the victory to some extent. Bonds are closed on Monday for the holiday and Tuesday could see a flurry of market activity in response to political news. There's no way to know if that activity would be good or bad for rates ahead of time, let alone if it will even materialize in the first place. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]Source: Mortgage News Daily | 17 Jan 2025 | 9:19 pm
